Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.009794 0.011064 0.012459 0.014108 0.016011 0.018142 0.020718
2024-12-15 0.007716 0.009407 0.011433 0.014055 0.017383 0.021497 0.027015
2024-12-22 0.006341 0.008113 0.010357 0.013438 0.017603 0.023108 0.031045
2024-12-29 0.005570 0.007411 0.009850 0.013365 0.018378 0.025388 0.036146
2025-01-05 0.005221 0.007195 0.009919 0.014023 0.020169 0.029233 0.043989
2025-01-12 0.004600 0.006517 0.009249 0.013514 0.020160 0.030394 0.047891
2025-01-19 0.004128 0.005997 0.008738 0.013157 0.020299 0.031745 0.052235
2025-01-26 0.003823 0.005687 0.008499 0.013174 0.021003 0.034055 0.058505
2025-02-02 0.003691 0.005623 0.008621 0.013769 0.022707 0.038231 0.068738
2025-02-09 0.003424 0.005320 0.008335 0.013648 0.023162 0.040271 0.075304
2025-02-16 0.003235 0.005125 0.008199 0.013762 0.024033 0.043157 0.083980
2025-02-23 0.003008 0.004847 0.007899 0.013552 0.024276 0.044876 0.090534
2025-03-02 0.002877 0.004727 0.007870 0.013848 0.025553 0.048874 0.102916
2025-03-09 0.002704 0.004522 0.007675 0.013821 0.026211 0.051746 0.113439
2025-03-16 0.002464 0.004178 0.007202 0.013214 0.025622 0.051911 0.117641
2025-03-23 0.002322 0.004000 0.007015 0.013143 0.026126 0.054506 0.128284
2025-03-30 0.002288 0.004012 0.007181 0.013788 0.028231 0.060996 0.150279
2025-04-06 0.002113 0.003752 0.006806 0.013289 0.027763 0.061447 0.156269
2025-04-13 0.001972 0.003543 0.006517 0.012939 0.027587 0.062572 0.164394
2025-04-20 0.001884 0.003430 0.006405 0.012956 0.028261 0.065890 0.179616
2025-04-27 0.001862 0.003444 0.006546 0.013539 0.030348 0.073145 0.208547
2025-05-04 0.001770 0.003312 0.006381 0.013420 0.030711 0.075922 0.224103
2025-05-11 0.001706 0.003234 0.006320 0.013532 0.031664 0.080461 0.246671